SABA Raises Concerns Over Prediction Markets in South Africa

South African bookmakers have raised concerns about the growth of offshore prediction market platforms, arguing that these services allow people to place wagers on uncertain outcomes without the controls that apply to licensed gambling operators.

The South African Bookmakers’ Association (SABA) says prediction markets operate in a way that closely resembles peer-to-peer betting exchanges because users take positions against each other while platforms earn revenue through commissions or transaction fees.

The association’s concerns follow reports that more than R700,000 was wagered on the outcome of Johannesburg’s next mayoral selection through the offshore prediction market platform Polymarket. The activity took place without South African regulatory supervision , licensing requirements, local taxation obligations, responsible gambling measures, or integrity protections.

SABA argues that prediction markets should be assessed within the same regulatory discussions that surround betting exchanges. The association believes operators should not avoid gambling rules by presenting these services as forecasting or information platforms.

Concerns over Prediction Markets and Betting Exchanges

Prediction markets allow users to buy positions based on whether future events will happen. Prices change according to market activity and reflect participants’ views about the likelihood of an outcome.

These platforms have expanded internationally and offer markets linked to political events, elections, economic developments, regulatory decisions, corporate matters, conflicts, and sporting events.

SABA says the structure of these markets shares important characteristics with betting exchanges. In both models, customers are matched with others who hold opposing views, while the platform itself does not become the party accepting the wager.

The association points to the way exchange betting works, where participants place bets directly against one another, and the operator provides the marketplace while earning commission. SABA argues that prediction markets follow a similar arrangement because users can benefit financially from either an event happening or failing to happen.

The organisation maintains that the difference between the two products largely relates to how they are presented rather than how they function.

Integrity and Regulatory Issues Highlighted

SABA has referred to concerns raised by international sporting integrity organisations about betting products that allow participants to gain financially from losing outcomes.

The association says these types of markets can create risks involving match manipulation, insider activity, corruption, criminal use of betting platforms, and damage to confidence in sporting results.

According to SABA, exchange-style markets create particular concerns because participants may have financial reasons to influence outcomes. Unlike traditional betting structures, these products can allow people to benefit when an expected outcome does not occur.

The association also points to wider concerns when prediction markets cover political and government-related events. Markets involving elections, government appointments, legislative votes, regulatory decisions, or public contracts could create opportunities for individuals to financially benefit from influencing public processes.

SABA says South Africa currently does not have a monitoring system designed to identify manipulation linked to prediction markets, creating uncertainty around oversight.

Calls for a Dedicated Legal Framework

SABA says existing South African gambling laws do not clearly provide for prediction market licensing. The association has previously argued that betting exchanges do not fit comfortably within current legal definitions of bookmakers or totalisators because the platform does not take the opposing side of a wager.

The same issue applies to prediction markets, according to SABA. Since operators mainly connect participants rather than accept betting risk themselves, the association questions whether existing legislation provides authority for these activities.

SABA has also raised concerns about decisions by the North West Gambling Board involving licences described as “Bookmaker Operator (Betting Exchange)” licences. The association argues that provincial regulators can only act within powers specifically provided by legislation and that betting exchanges require separate legislative consideration.

The organisation says prediction markets require similar attention if authorities decide to create a regulatory approach for these products.

Money laundering risks also form part of SABA’s concerns. The association says prediction markets can involve large volumes of peer-to-peer transactions, rapid transfers of funds, offsetting positions, international operations, crypto-assets, and complex transaction records.

Offshore operators may also limit South African authorities’ ability to access information or enforce compliance requirements, according to SABA.

Consumer protection remains another issue raised by the association. Unlike licensed South African bookmakers, offshore prediction market platforms do not operate under local requirements covering responsible gambling systems, self-exclusion measures, advertising rules, affordability checks, dispute resolution processes, taxation obligations, or contributions to responsible gambling programmes.

SABA says this leaves South African consumers with fewer protections when they use these platforms.

SABA Urges Caution Before Approval

The association has called for a detailed review before prediction markets receive any form of approval in South Africa. It says policymakers should consider gambling rules, financial regulations, electoral requirements, consumer safeguards, anti-money laundering obligations, and integrity monitoring.

SABA recommends that prediction markets be treated as exchange-style betting products until authorities establish a specific legal framework.

The association concludes that the growth of offshore prediction markets, including markets linked to political outcomes, requires regulatory clarity. It maintains that these platforms raise issues connected to gambling oversight, public confidence, taxation, consumer protection, and market integrity.

Until South African gambling regulators create rules covering licensing, monitoring, compliance, and taxation, SABA believes prediction markets should remain outside the authorised gambling environment.

Source: South African Bookmakers’ Association calls for ban on prediction markets amid integrity concerns, July 28, 2026.